A Festival of Democracy: The November 2025 Assembly Elections in Bihar

When the people of Bihar cast their votes in early November 2025, they will participate in what might aptly be called a festival of democracy—one of the largest and most politically significant elections in India in recent times. The stakes are high: the results will shape not only who governs the state of Bihar, but also send ripples across national politics. In this blog I will explore the background, stakes, key players, electoral machinery, issues at the fore, and what to watch for as the state heads to polls on 6 and 11 November and counting on 14 November.

1. Why this election matters

Bihar is India’s third-most populous state, and its politics is often viewed as a micro-cosm of the larger shifts in Indian democracy — caste dynamics, regional versus national parties, migration, and development. The 2025 assembly election (for all 243 seats) carries particular import for several reasons:

Assembly term ending: The term of the current Legislative Assembly ends on 22 November 2025.
Political battleground: The poll pits the incumbent alliance of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) + Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) (“NDA”) against a rejuvenated opposition in the form of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) + Indian National Congress (Congress) + Left parties alliance (“Mahagathbandhan” or INDIA bloc) plus new entrants like Jan Suraaj Party.
Voter size and new dynamics: With over 7.4 crore eligible voters, and first-time voters, the roll revision and polling infrastructure make this a major administrative exercise.
National significance: A setback for the NDA here would reverberate for national politics, since Bihar is part of the broader Hindi-heartland and regional balance of power.

Thus, these elections are far more than just the choice of a state government—they reflect deeper currents in Indian politics.

2. The Electoral Machinery & Schedule

One of the first steps to keep in mind is when and how the elections are being conducted, because the details reflect the complexity and scale of the exercise in Bihar.

Dates & Phases

Phase 1: 6 November 2025 (121 Seats)
Phase 2: 11 November 2025 (122 Seats)
Counting & result: 14 November 2025
Total seats: 243.

Voter Rolls & Booths

The final electoral roll shows about 7.42 crore eligible voters.
The election commission capped the number of voters per polling station to 1,200 (versus earlier 1,500) to improve accessibility.
Number of polling stations: ~90,712 in the state.
There was also a Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of the electoral rolls, launched June 2025 and completed by September.

Significance of These Measures
The large number of booths, the lowered voter-to-booth ratio, and the roll revision all point to efforts to make polling more efficient and inclusive. But they also raise concerns—particularly by opposition parties—about whether the roll revision might inadvertently disenfranchise some voters. Indeed, critics have raised objections (we will return to this in the “issues” section).

3. Main Political Players & Alliances

In Bihar, alliances can make or break electoral outcomes. Here’s a breakdown of the major players heading into November 2025.

The Incumbents – NDA

BJP (led nationally by Narendra Modi)
JD(U) (led by Nitish Kumar, also the current Chief Minister)
Other smaller allies under the NDA umbrella within Bihar.
This alliance has been in power in the state and is looking to retain its majority and influence.

The Opposition – Mahagathbandhan / INDIA Bloc

RJD (led by Tejashwi Yadav)
Congress
Left parties
This grouping is aiming to unseat the incumbents, riding on promises of social justice, welfare, and change in direction.

New/Third-Front Entrants

Jan Suraaj Party (led by election strategist-turned-politician Prashant Kishor)
These newcomers add unpredictability, possibly splitting votes or influencing traditional vote banks.

Why This Matters
The nature of alliances in Bihar often determines seat-sharing, campaign strategy, and voter mobilization across caste and community lines. A fracture in any alliance, or a strong third front, could shift the outcome in many constituencies.

4. Key issues and themes shaping the election

Elections are won or lost on issues as much as on personalities and alliances. In Bihar 2025 several themes stand out:

a) Employment & Migration
Bihar has a large number of out-migrants and many young voters who are concerned about jobs, livelihoods and the reason for leaving home districts. Reports suggest youth unemployment remains a significant concern.

b) Electoral Roll Revision & Trust
The SIR exercise, which deleted many names and revised polling rolls, has created controversy. The opposition has raised concerns about disenfranchisement of the poor, migrants or those with weaker documentation.

c) Caste & Community Dynamics
Bihar politics remains deeply influenced by caste alignments—Yadavs, Kurmis, Dalits, Backward Castes, scheduled castes and tribes. How alliances map onto communities, and how new entrants appeal to specific castes, will matter.

d) Governance, Development & Service Delivery
There is an increasing expectation among voters for better roads, schools, hospitals, digital connectivity, water supply. Past promises must be converted into tangible outcomes.

e) Local vs National Narrative
While state elections often focus on local issues, the BJP under Modi and the national narrative around national security, leadership and governance also play a role. How much the electorate views the Bihar election as a referendum on the national government is a question.

f) Identity and Regional Pride
The opposition has sought to appeal to what is often called “Bihari pride”, criticizing alleged external interference, and promising greater respect and autonomy for Bihar’s voice in the Indian federal structure.

5. Campaigns, Strategy & Voter Behaviour

Let’s consider how campaigns are being run, what strategies are emerging, and how voters might behave.

Campaigning & Messaging

The NDA will emphasise development, stability, delivery of welfare schemes, and continuity.
The Mahagathbandhan will stress change, social justice, restoration of rights, addressing unemployment and reversing alleged disenfranchisement.
New entrants like Jan Suraaj may focus on fresh narratives—youth, reform, non-traditional politics.
Campaign strategy will also include candidate selection, outreach to first-time voters, use of digital media, micro-targeting of communities.

Seat-By-Seat Strategies
With 243 seats, each constituency is different. Success may depend on local factors—popular local leader, caste arithmetic, impact of specific schemes, migration patterns, etc.

Voter Behaviour & First‐Time Voters
The roll counts show around 14 lakh first-time voters in Bihar. These young voters often have different priorities than older ones—jobs, mobility, digital access, aspirations. Winning their support could matter a lot.

Migration & Non-resident Voters
Given high migration in Bihar, voter turnout and how migrants engage with hometown constituencies matter. If many men migrate, the vote patterns, especially of women left behind, shift.

Turnout & Booth Performance
The Election Commission’s decision to limit number of voters per booth (1,200) and increase number of polling stations suggests a push for improved access and higher turnout. High turnout often bodes well for change, though not always—context matters.

6. What could decide the outcome?

Here are some critical variables that could swing the election one way or another:

Alliance cohesion: Any break in NDA or Mahagathbandhan could divide votes and allow opponents to gain.
Caste and community mobilization: Whether traditional caste-based alignments hold or get reshaped (for example, due to new parties) is crucial.
First-time voter mobilisation: If young voters turn out in large numbers and favour one side, that may tip close seats.
Electoral roll issues: If controversies around roll deletions or disenfranchisement remain high, public sentiment might shift.
Local issues & incumbent performance: In many seats the local MLA’s performance, visible infrastructure or welfare scheme will count more than national slogans.
Role of new entrants: Parties like Jan Suraaj or other third-front possibilities may split votes, particularly in seats where the margin is thin.
Turnout levels: If turnout is atypically high (or low) in certain communities, that may reflect momentum for change.
National political wind: While this is a state election, national mood, central government programmes, and how voters perceive them will influence behaviour.

7. Possible Scenarios

Given the complexity, several scenarios are plausible:

NDA retains majority: The ruling alliance manages to hold together its social coalition, delivers enough on welfare and growth, and wins a comfortable majority.
Opposition victory: Mahagathbandhan manages to galvanise change sentiment, appeal to first-time voters, exploit dissatisfaction and wrest control.
Hung Assembly / coalition‐forming scenario: No alliance gets a clean majority, leading to negotiations, potential post-poll alliances or even regional parties playing king‐maker.
Strong third front disruption: If Jan Suraaj or another emerging party wins significant seats, they may become a decisive factor, either independently or in alliance negotiations.

8. What Does This Mean for India?

A result in Bihar will not just reflect the state’s politics, but have broader implications:

It will send signals about the strength of regional parties versus national parties.
It can influence national alliances and centre-state equations, especially since Bihar is large and politically central.
It may become a benchmark for how new political offerings (youth-oriented, reform-oriented) fare in Indian democracy.
It may affect policy direction: if change comes, welfare, employment and regional identity may get stronger attention; if status quo holds, incremental development may continue.

9. What to Watch For in the Coming Weeks

Here are some specific signals to monitor in the lead-up to November:

How well parties manage constituency-wise candidate selection and whether there are surprises or last-minute switches.
Campaign intensity and messaging—are parties staying local or going national?
Turnout of first-time voters and young population – are they being mobilised?
Any flashpoints or issues regarding electoral rolls, polling booth preparedness, or violence.
Polling in migrant-sending regions and turnout in more remote/rural areas.
Exit polls versus actual results and how margin of victory plays out—many seats in Bihar are decided by narrow margins.
Post-poll alliances or seat-sharing negotiations if no clear majority emerges.

10. Conclusion

The November 2025 assembly elections in Bihar represent a major democratic moment. With more than 7.4 crore voters, 243 seats up for grabs, and two-phase polling on 6 and 11 November followed by results on 14 November, the stage is set for a high-stakes contest.

Whether the outcome brings continuity or change, an upset or reaffirmation of the status quo, it will reveal much about the evolving aspirations of Biharis—especially young voters, migrants, communities long shaped by caste politics—and how they view governance, development and identity in 2025-26.

As a voter, observer or simply someone interested in Indian politics, this is a moment to watch closely. The “festival” of democracy is on—what people in Bihar decide will echo far beyond Patna.

BY,

Saket kumar singh,

Founder, Sayufinserv

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Saket Kumar Singh